Diagnosed prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis (UC) in the United States and seven other countries are projected to increase from 1.9 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2031, at an annual growth rate of 0.63%, according to a new report by GlobalData.
The data and analytics company's report offers projections for diagnosed incident and prevalent cases of UC in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Japan, Italy, France, and Canada.
In 2031, the United States will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of UC, with 655,317 cases, whereas Canada will have the fewest, with 91,186 cases, the company projects.
"UC can occur at any age, although most people are diagnosed in their mid-thirties. Men and women are equally likely to be affected, but older men are more likely to be diagnosed than older women," Bharti Prabhakar, MPH, associate project manager at GlobalData, said in a statement.
In all eight countries, adults aged 30-69 years accounted for more than 65% of the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC, whereas those younger than 20 years made up less than 3% of the cases, GlobalData noted.
Incidence Also Rising
Diagnosed incident cases of UC in the eight countries are expected to increase from 160,122 cases in 2021 to 168,467 cases in 2031, at an annual growth rate of 0.52%, the company said.
In 2031, the United States will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of UC, with 104,795 cases, and France will have the fewest, with 2972 cases, the company predicts.
GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the predicted increases in UC prevalence and incidence to changes in population dynamics in each country.
The forecast is supported by historical data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies, the firm noted.
The methodology was kept consistent across the eight countries to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast incident and prevalent cases of UC across these markets, GlobalData added.
"UC can affect people of any racial or ethnic group," Prabhakar stated. "Genes, abnormal immune reactions, the microbiome, diet, stress, and the environment have all been suggested as triggers, but there is no definite evidence that any one of these factors is the cause of UC."
Western countries have reported high incidence and prevalence of UC, Prabhaker noted. "Therefore, environmental factors may either suppress or reinforce inherent predispositions for UC and might also be crucial in triggering disease onset," Prabhakar added.
The full report, Ulcerative Colitis Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast, 2021-2031, is available for purchase online.
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Cite this: Ulcerative Colitis Cases Projected to Top 2 Million in Eight Countries by 2031 - Medscape - Mar 16, 2023.