Measles Case and Mortality Estimates
A previously described model for estimating measles cases and deaths was updated with 2021 measles data and United Nations 2000–2021 population estimates.§§§ Data on case fatality from an updated systematic review and a suite of covariates with known relationships to case fatality were used in a Bayesian meta-regression modeling framework to produce estimates of measles case fatality ratios¶¶¶. The updated estimates reflect heterogeneity among countries, years, and ages. On the basis of the revised model and 2021 data, the estimated number of measles cases decreased 72%, from 34,013,000 in 2000 to 9,484,000 in 2021; estimated annual measles deaths decreased 83%, from 761,000 to 128,000 (Table 2). However, the estimated numbers of both cases and deaths were higher in 2021 compared with those in 2020. During 2000–2021, compared with no measles vaccination, measles vaccination prevented an estimated 56 million deaths globally (Figure).
Estimated number of annual measles deaths with measles vaccination and in the absence of measles vaccination — worldwide, 2000–2021*
*Deaths prevented by vaccination are estimated by the area between estimated deaths with vaccination and those without vaccination (cumulative total of 56 million deaths prevented during 2000–2021). Vertical bars represent 95% CIs around the point estimate.
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2022;71(47):1489-1495. © 2022 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)