Declines in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Hospitalizations, and Mortality After Implementation of Mitigation Measures

Delaware, March-June

Florence A. Kanu; Erica E. Smith; Tabatha Offutt-Powell; Rick Hong; Delaware Case Investigation and Contact Tracing Teams; Thu-Ha Dinh; Eric Pevzner

Disclosures

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2020;69(45):1691-1694. 

In This Article

Abstract and Introduction

Introduction

Mitigation measures, including stay-at-home orders and public mask wearing, together with routine public health interventions such as case investigation with contact tracing and immediate self-quarantine after exposure, are recommended to prevent and control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[1–3] On March 11, the first COVID-19 case in Delaware was reported to the Delaware Division of Public Health (DPH). The state responded to ongoing community transmission with investigation of all identified cases (commencing March 11), issuance of statewide stay-at-home orders (March 24–June 1), a statewide public mask mandate (from April 28), and contact tracing (starting May 12). The relationship among implementation of mitigation strategies, case investigations, and contact tracing and COVID-19 incidence and associated hospitalization and mortality was examined during March–June 2020. Incidence declined by 82%, hospitalization by 88%, and mortality by 100% from late April to June 2020, as the mask mandate and contact tracing were added to case investigations and the stay-at-home order. Among 9,762 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported during March 11–June 25, 2020, two thirds (6,527; 67%) of patients were interviewed, and 5,823 (60%) reported completing isolation. Among 2,834 contacts reported, 882 (31%) were interviewed and among these contacts, 721 (82%) reported completing quarantine. Implementation of mitigation measures, including mandated mask use coupled with public health interventions, was followed by reductions in COVID-19 incidence and associated hospitalizations and mortality. The combination of state-mandated community mitigation efforts and routine public health interventions can reduce the occurrence of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Using laboratory and case investigation data, changes in COVID-19 incidence and associated hospitalization and mortality in Delaware during March 11–June 25 were assessed. Laboratory data from the Delaware Electronic Reporting and Surveillance System (DERSS) and case investigation data from Delaware DPH were obtained. DERSS data included case classification (e.g., laboratory-confirmed or probable*); case investigation data included hospitalization status and outcome, including death. Incidence was defined as the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 patients per 10,000 Delaware residents per week.[4] Hospitalization and mortality rates were calculated similarly, as the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 who were hospitalized or died per 10,000 persons per week. Percent change was calculated to describe the magnitude of rate change. Delaware mitigation and public health interventions included 1) case investigations (starting March 11), which involved interviewing patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, asking each to immediately self-isolate while collecting information on demographic characteristics, potential exposure source, symptoms, and close contacts§; 2) statewide mandated stay-at-home order (March 24–June 1); 3) statewide mandated mask use in public** (instituted April 28); and 4) contact tracing (starting May 12), wherein close contacts were interviewed and asked to self-quarantine and report symptoms for 14 days following an exposure. Changes in COVID-19 incidence and associated hospitalizations and mortality from March through June were assessed.

After the initial case report and stay-at-home order, COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization, and mortality rates increased, peaking during the week of April 13 at 15.0, 2.0, and 0.8 per 10,000 persons, respectively (Figure). After the peak, incidence declined by 18%, hospitalizations by 20%, and deaths by 13%, before increasing slightly during the week of April 20. Rates declined again the same week the mask mandate went into effect (April 28) and continued to decline by 82% (incidence), 88% (hospitalization) and 100% (mortality) from late April through June, as contact tracing was added to case investigations, the stay-at-home order, and the mask mandate.

Figure.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases, associated hospitalizations, and deaths reported to Delaware Division of Public Health, by week, and COVID-19 mitigation efforts — Delaware Department of Health and Social Services, March 9–June 15, 2020
Abbreviation: COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019.

During March 11–June 25, a total of 9,762 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were identified in DERSS; among these cases, 6,527 (67%) patients were interviewed and asked to self-isolate, among whom 5,823 (89%) had been released from isolation†† at the time of data collection. Median patient age was 41 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 28–54 years), and 55% were female (Table). The median interval from receiving a positive test result to interview was 8 days (IQR = 6–12 days) and from DPH's receipt of case report to interview was 5 days (IQR = 2–8 days). Patients who were not interviewed were those who did not respond to call attempts (1,134, 12%), were in a hospital/long-term care facility at time of contact (788, 8%), did not have an available phone number (673, 7%), had died (433, 4%), or were not interviewed for other reasons¶¶ (207, 2%). Among interviewed patients, 5,742 (88%) reported having any COVID-19–related symptoms before the interview date, and 55% reported close contact with someone with diagnosed COVID-19.

Among 6,527 interviewed patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, 5,390 (83%) either refused to name contacts or could not recall contacts. The mean number of contacts reported per patient who reported one or more contacts was 2.5 (IQR = 1–3). Among the 2,834 contacts reported, complete contact information was obtained for 1,869 (66%), and 882 (47%) of those were interviewed and asked to self-quarantine. The median interval from patient interview to contact interview was 2 days (IQR = 1–4 days). The median age of interviewed contacts was 25 years (IQR = 14–47 years), 433 (49%) were female, 721 (82%) did not develop symptoms during quarantine, and 771 (87%) lived in the same household as someone with confirmed COVID-19. Overall, 161 (18%) of the 882 contacts who were reached experienced symptoms during quarantine and were urged to be tested for SARS-CoV-2. A manual search of DERSS data determined that among 161 symptomatic contacts, 20 (12%) were tested, four of whom (3%) received a COVID-19 diagnosis. Reasons for not interviewing contacts included that the contact did not respond to call attempts (265, 14%), had no available phone number (208, 11%), refused (88, 5%), was a non-Delaware resident (20, 1%), or other reasons (406, 22%).

*A probable case was defined as an illness meeting clinical criteria and having an epidemiologic link with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19, or an illness with presumptive laboratory evidence (detection of antigen or antibody) and either meeting clinical criteria or having an epidemiologic link, or an illness in a person meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing for COVID-19 performed. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/faq-surveillance.html.
The following signs and symptoms were monitored: cough, fever, fatigue, body aches, loss of taste/smell, shortness of breath, chills, and sore throat.
§Case investigation included inquiries about close contacts in May 2020. At time of data collection, CDC guidance on contact definition was "persons less than 6 feet from a confirmed case for at least 10 minutes." CDC guidance now defines contacts as any person within 6 feet of an infected person for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period starting from 2 days before illness onset (or, for asymptomatic patients, 2 days prior to test specimen collection). https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/contact-tracing/contact-tracing-plan/appendix.html#contact.
https://governor.delaware.gov/health-soe/fifth-state-of-emergency/.
**https://governor.delaware.gov/health-soe/thirteenth-state-of-emergency/.
††Release from isolation was dependent on CDC guidance during this study period: initially, patients were asked to isolate for 14 days from symptom onset or test date and be symptom-free for 7 days. Later, patients were asked to isolate for 10 days from symptom onset or test date and be symptom-free for 3 days. Patients with asymptomatic cases were asked to isolate for 10 days after test date.
¶¶Other status was reserved for unique circumstances that could not be addressed by case investigators or contact tracers without additional information.

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