Multistage Carcinogenesis and the Incidence of Thyroid Cancer in the US by Sex, Race, Stage and Histology

Rafael Meza; Joanne T. Chang


BMC Public Health. 2015;15(789) 

In This Article


In summary, our analyses provide additional evidence that indicates that the rise in thyroid cancer incidence is likely predominantly due to more intensive screening-diagnostics, but also suggest that an environmental factor could be also at play. Given the recent evidence that indicates that current screening and imaging practices have led to significant levels of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis in the US,[44,45] there is a need to develop thyroid cancer natural history models to quantify the impact of such practices on observed thyroid cancer rates. Such models could be also used to investigate the potential impact of interventions to reduce thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to predict the potential benefits (and harms) of changes in surveillance and screening practices on thyroid cancer outcomes.[46,47] The models developed here constitute a first step in that direction.[31,33,46]