Congenital Rubella Syndrome and Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevented by Rubella Vaccination

United States, 2001-2010

Brynn E Berger; Ann Marie Navar-Boggan; Saad B Omer

Disclosures

BMC Public Health. 2011;11 

In This Article

Results

Using equations 1 and 2 and the parameter estimates given in Table 1 rubella vaccination prevented an estimated 16,600 CRS cases and 1228 CRS-associated ASD cases in the United States from 2001 through 2010. By changing pre-vaccine era CRS incidence from 2.0 cases per 10,000 live births (most conservative scenario) to 15 cases per 10,000 live births (least conservative scenario), the estimated number of CRS cases prevented ranged from 8300 to 62,250 (Table 2). Corresponding ASD prevention estimates ranged from 614 to 4607 cases (Table 3). Varying the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD caused considerable, though less dramatic, changes in ASD prevention estimates. When the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD was altered from the lower limit of 3.0% to the upper limit of 10.0%, an estimated 498 and 1660 ASD cases were prevented, respectively (Table 3).

Combining variations in pre-vaccine era CRS incidence and the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD, an estimated minimum of 249 ASD cases and an estimated maximum of 6225 ASD cases were prevented by rubella vaccination from 2001 through 2010 (Table 3). Due to the expansion of ASD diagnostic criteria over time, using the upper limit of the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD may more accurately reflect cases of ASD prevented using current diagnostic criteria. Employing the upper limit of the percentage of CRS cases presenting with an ASD, an estimated 1660 ASD cases (range: 830 to 6225 cases) were prevented by rubella vaccination from 2001 through 2010.

Comments

3090D553-9492-4563-8681-AD288FA52ACE
Comments on Medscape are moderated and should be professional in tone and on topic. You must declare any conflicts of interest related to your comments and responses. Please see our Commenting Guide for further information. We reserve the right to remove posts at our sole discretion.

processing....