What are the factors that predict an increased risk of mortality in polyarteritis nodosa (PAN)?

Updated: Nov 14, 2017
  • Author: Dana Jacobs-Kosmin, MD, FACP; Chief Editor: Herbert S Diamond, MD  more...
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Answer

In a prospective study of 342 patients with PAN, Guillevin et al found 5 factors associated with poor prognosis. They devised a 5-factors score (FFS) to predict survival and help guide treatment decisions. [41] The presence of any of the following 5 factors predicts an increased likelihood of mortality:

  • Renal insufficiency (serum creatinine >1.58 mg/dL)>
  • Proteinuria (>1 g/d)
  • GI involvement (bleeding, perforation, infarction, pancreatitis)
  • Cardiomyopathy
  • CNS involvement

When the FFS is zero, the predicted mortality rate at 5 years is 11.9%. When the FFS is 1, the mortality rate is 25.9%, and when the FFS is 2 or more, the mortality rate is 45.9%.


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