Factor	No. of patients	No. of patients who bled	P-value*	No. of patients who died	P-value*
Sex
Male	222	51	<0.001	85	0.470
Female	82	4	-	26	-
Age (years)
</=51	150	26	0.377	43	0.001
>/=52	154	29	-	68	-
Heavy alcohol intake
Absent	172	20	<0.001	54	0.049
Present	132	35	-	57	-
Cause of liver cirrhosis
Alcohol	65	20	0.019	19	0.751
Hepatitis B virus	192	29	-	73	-
Hepatitis C virus	31	5	-	12	-
Other	16	1	-	7	-
Form of varix
Small	164	11	<0.001	49	0.009
Large	140	44	-	62	-
Red color signs
Absent	245	26	<0.001	82	0.021
Present	59	29	-	29	-
Location of varix
Inferior	128	14	<0.001	40	0.136
Median	140	30	-	56	-
Superior	36	11	-	15	-
Color of varix
Blue	179	35	0.414	68	0.241
White	125	20	-	43	-
Gastric varix
Absent	228	31	<0.001	80	0.214
Present	76	24	-	31	-
Albumin (g/dL)
</=3.6	164	34	0.034	77	<0.001
>3.6	140	21	-	34	-
Bilirubin (mg/dL)
</=1.5	150	24	0.068	39	0.003
>1.5	154	31	-	72	-
Prothrombin time (s)
</=13.5	160	34	0.412	47	<0.001
>13.5	144	21	-	64	-
Ascites
Absent	158	18	<0.001	34	<0.001
Present	146	37	-	77	-
Encephalopathy
Absent	279	51	0.506	94	<0.001
Present	25	4	-	17	-
Child grade
A	153	23	0.003	28	<0.001
B	113	21	-	56	-
C	38	11	-	27	-
Platelet (103/mm3)
</=84.5	152	30	0.242	66	0.005
>84.5	152	25	-	45	-
AST (IU/L)
</=45	57	9	0.431	13	0.020
>45	247	46	-	98	-
DM
Yes	43	11	0.177	19	0.257
No	261	44	-	92	-
HTN
Yes	10	3	0.251	4	0.671
No	294	52	-	107	-
GB stone
Yes	8	2	0.841	1	0.139
No	296	53	-	110	-

*Log-rank test. AST, aspartate aminotransferase; DM, diabetes mellitus; GB, gallbladder; HTN, hypertension.

Factors	Hazard ratio (95% confidence interval)	P-value
Alcohol ingestion (heavyvsnon-heavy)	2.29 (1.32-3.97)	0.003
Form of varix (largevssmall)	3.26 (1.52-6.98)	0.002
Red color sign (presentvsabsent)	4.26 (2.31-7.87)	<0.001

Subgroups†	No. of patients (bleeding)	Incidence of first bleeding (%)				Incidence of bleeding related deaths (%)
		1 year	2 years	3 years	5 years	1 year	2 years	3 years	5 years
Low-risk group	205 (14)	1.0	4.4	8.0	11.8	0.0	1.3	2.9	4.2
High-risk group	68 (22)	12.7	35.9	44.9	44.9	0.0	7.6	12.8	12.8
Very-high-risk group	31 (19)	34.9	57.3	75.6	87.8	3.4	13.9	25.8	25.8

^†Risk groups were defined by three risk components of a varix larger than F1, positive red color sign and the presence of heavy alcohol consumption. Those with all of three risk components were allocated to the 'very-high-risk group', those with two components to the 'high-risk group', and those with one component or none to the 'low-risk group'.

Factor	No. of patients	No. of deaths (%)	P-value*
Sex
Male	51	12 (24)	0.266
Female	4	2 (50)	-
Age (years)
</=53	28	6 (21)	0.485
54	27	8 (30)	-
Heavy drinking
Absent	24	5 (21)	0.489
Present	31	9 (29)	-
Cause of cirrhosis
Alcohol	20	5 (25)	0.364
Hepatitis B virus	29	7 (24)	-
Hepatitis C virus	5	1 (20)	-
Other	1	1 (100)	-
Form of varices
Small	2	1 (50)	0.448
Large	53	13 (25)	-
Red color signs
Absent	4	0 (0)	0.562
Present	51	14 (28)	-
Location of varices
Inferior	5	1 (20)	0.889
Median	27	7 (26)	-
Superior	23	6 (26)	-
Color of varices
Blue	24	7 (29)	0.578
White	31	7 (23)	-
Gastric varices
Absent	27	8 (30)	0.485
Present	28	6 (21)	-
Albumin (g/dL)
</=3.1	25	10	0.032
>3.1	30	4	-
Bilirubin (mg/dL)
</=1.8	26	1	<0.001
>1.8	29	13	-
Prothrombin time (s)
</=13.7	28	6	0.547
>13.7	27	8	-
Ascites
Absent	21	2 (10)	0.054
Present	34	12 (35)	-
Encephalopathy
Absent	43	7 (16)	0.003
Present	12	7 (58)	-
Child grade
A	16	0 (0)	<0.001
B	19	3 (16)	-
C	20	11 (55)	-
Platelet (103/mm3)
</=77	28	11 (30)	0.029
>77	27	3 (9)	-
AST (IU/L)
</=78	29	4 (14)	0.061
>78	26	10 (38)	-
PVT†
Absent	51	10 (20)	0.003
Present	4	4 (100)	-

*Comparison of proportions was performed using the chi-squared test or the Fisher's exact test when the number in a cell was </=5.
^†Tumor thrombus in main portal vein. AST, aspartate aminotransferase; PVT, portal vein thrombus.

Group	Cause of death (%)
	Hepatic failure	Hepatocellular carcinoma	Variceal bleeding	Hepatorenal syndrome	Infection	Other	Total
Cause of liver cirrhosis
Alcohol	10 (43)	1 (4)	6 (26)	2 (9)	2 (9)	2 (9)	23 (100)
Non-alcohol	40 (45)	23 (26)	11 (13)	6 (7)	3 (3)	5 (6)	88 (100)
Risk of variceal bleeding
Low risk	36 (58)	11 (18)	5 (8)	3 (5)	2 (3)	5 (8)	62 (100)
High or more risk	14 (29)	13 (27)	12 (24)	5 (10)	3 (6)	2 (4)	49 (100)
Entire group	50 (45)	24 (22)	17 (15)	8 (7)	5 (5)	7 (6)	111 (100)

Factor	No. of patients (deaths)	Cumulative survival rates (%)					P-value
		1 year	2 years	3 years	4 years	5 years
Variceal bleeding
Absent	249 (72)	93.5	83.3	71.7	64.4	56.8	0.013
Present	55 (39)	94.6	78.2	54.6	42.9	33.0	-
HCC
Absent	264 (84)	93.1	81.8	70.3	62.4	54.6	0.031
Present	40 (27)	97.5	84.9	54.1	40.5	28.3	-

Group and factor	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	P-value
Entire patient group
Age (years)	1.02 (1.00-1.04)	0.038
Albumin (g/dL)	0.40 (0.27-0.58)	<0.001
Ascites (presentvsabsent)	1.56 (1.00-2.44)	0.049
Encephalopathy (presentvsabsent)	1.84 (1.21-2.81)	0.005
Child-Pugh score†	1.33 (1.22-1.45)	<0.001
Platelet (103/mm3)	0.93 (0.88-0.99)	0.012
HCC (presentvsabsent)	2.64 (1.62-4.31)	<0.001
Variceal bleeding (presentvsabsent)	3.87 (2.22-6.73)	<0.001
Time after variceal bleeding (months)	0.97 (0.95-0.99)	0.003
Alcoholic cirrhosis
Encephalopathy (presentvsabsent)	8.61 (2.60-28.46)	<0.001
Variceal bleeding (presentvsabsent)	26.03 (7.73-87.68)	<0.001
Time after variceal bleeding (months)	0.94 (0.89-0.98)	0.009
Non-alcoholic cirrhosis
Age (years)	1.03 (1.00-1.05)	0.007
Albumin (g/dL)	0.21 (0.14-0.31)	<0.001
HCC (presentvsabsent)	2.90 (1.75-4.83)	<0.001
Variceal bleeding (presentvsabsent)	3.20 (1.61-6.36)	<0.001
Time after variceal bleeding (months)	0.97 (0.95-0.99)	0.040
Child-Pugh grade A
HCC (presentvsabsent)	4.63 (1.76-9.03)	<0.001
Form of varix (largevssmall)	2.54 (1.13-5.70)	0.020
Child-Pugh grade B
HCC (presentvsabsent)	3.22 (1.66-6.25)	<0.001
Variceal bleeding (presentvsabsent)	5.70 (2.64-12.33)	<0.001
Time after variceal bleeding (months)	0.94 (0.90-0.98)	0.003
Child-Pugh grade C
Age (years)	1.04 (1.00-1.09)	0.038

^†Child-Pugh score and its five component variables were analyzed separately on the basis of two Cox-Oakes' models. CI, confidence interval.