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Tables for:
Predictors of Readmission Among Elderly Survivors of Admission With Heart Failure

[Am Heart J 139(1):72-77, 2000. © 2000 Mosby-Year Book, Inc]


Table I. Characteristics of the model derivation (n = 1129) and the model validation samples (n = 1047)


CharacteristicDerivation sample
(n [%])
Validation sample
(n [%])
Age (mean [SD])78.4 (7.64)79.4 (7.59)
Female662 (59)622 (59)
White1039 (92)951 (91)
Admitted from SNF111 (10)107 (10)
History of HF682 (60)679 (65)
History of MI397 (35)400 (38)
Diabetes412 (36)398 (38)
Percent with LVEF measured752 (67)590 (56)
LVEF <40%328 (44)282 (48)
Discharge serum sodium <130 mmol/L22 (2)22 (2)
Discharge serum creatinine >2.5 mg/dL115 (10)120 (11)
Discharge medical therapy
   ACE inhibitors629 (56)632 (60)
   Digoxin657 (59)572 (55)
   Diuretic 988 (88)873 (83)
6-Mo readmission rate570 (50)491 (47)
6-Mo HF readmission rate287 (25)219 (21)
6-Mo mortality rate206 (18)173 (18)
6-Mo readmission + death644 (57)557 (53)

ACE, Angiotensin-converting enzyme; HF, heart failure; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MI, myocardial infarction; SNF, skilled nursing facility.


Table II. Demographic, medical history and clinical characteristics, and risk of readmission among patients in the model derivation sample (n = 1129)


CharacteristicsNo readmission
(n [%])
Readmission
(n [%])
P value*
Total sample559 (50)570 (50) 
Demographics
   Age
      65-74183 (47)209 (53).03
      75-84233 (48)249 (52)
      >=85143 (56)112 (44)
   Sex
      Male219 (47)248 (53).14
      Female340 (51)322 (49)
   Race
      White510 (49)527 (51).45
      Other49 (53)43 (47)
Medical history
   Atrial fibrillation/flutter149 (46)175 (54).13
   MI188 (47)209 (53).28
   HF311 (46)371 (54).001
   PTCA31 (49)32 (51).96
   CABG104 (48)114 (52).55
   Stroke94 (44)119 (56).08
   Renal failure84 (39)131 (61).001
   COPD133 (45)160 (55).10
   Diabetes180 (44)232 (56).003
   Hypertension338 (50)336 (50).60
   Admission in 1 y244 (44)312 (56).001
   HF admission in 1 y76 (42)104 (58).03
Admission clinical characteristics
   Paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea141 (49)144 (51).99
   Orthopnea225 (48)241 (52).49
   Chest pain93 (50)92 (50).82
   SBP >200 mm Hg64 (56)51 (44).17
   Pulse >100 beats/min180 (51)172 (49).46
   Respiratory rate >24 breaths/min374 (49)387 (51).72
   Pulmonary edema on chest radiograph125 (48)135 (52).60
Hospital course
   LVEF <20%26 (46)31 (54).29
   Major complication26 (59)18 (41).20
   Major procedure45 (54)38 (46).37
   Length of stay >= 4 days515 (49)535 (51).26
Discharge labs
   Sodium <130 mmol/L13 (59)9 (41).36
   Potassium >5 mmol/L34 (51)33 (49).84
   BUN >40 mg/dL150 (42)204 (58).001
   Creatinine >2.5 mg/dL33 (29)82 (71).001
   BUN/creatinine >20311 (48)335 (52).35
Discharge mobility
   Independent324 (49)334 (51).94
   Assisted235 (50)236 (51)

BUN, Blood urea nitrogen; CABG, coronary artery bypass surgery; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HF, heart failure; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MI, myocardial infarction; PTCA, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty; SBP, systolic blood pressure.

*P value for comparisons within samples of patients.


Table III. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of selected model for all-cause readmission in the derivation sample


VariableHazard ratio
(95% CI)*
P value
Creatinine >2.5 mg/dL at discharge1.72 (1.35-2.18).0001
Prior admission within 1 year1.25 (1.05-1.48).012
Prior heart failure1.23 (1.02-1.48).03
Diabetes1.17 (0.99-1.39).07

CI, Confidence interval.

*Hazard ratio based on Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for other factors in the model.
Prior heart failure was at least 1 prior heart failure admission within 1 year or documented history of heart failure.


Table IV. Readmission by number of risk predictors: Comparison of the derivation and the validation samples


No. risk predictorsDerivation sampleValidation sample
n% Eventn% Event
All-cause readmission
   02013415626
   1-27055164948
   3-42236324259
Heart failure readmission
   0201121569
   1-27052564920
   3-42233924231
All-cause readmission or death
   02013815631
   1-27055864954
   3-42237024265