Characteristic Derivation sample
(n [%])Validation sample
(n [%])Age (mean [SD]) 78.4 (7.64) 79.4 (7.59) Female 662 (59) 622 (59) White 1039 (92) 951 (91) Admitted from SNF 111 (10) 107 (10) History of HF 682 (60) 679 (65) History of MI 397 (35) 400 (38) Diabetes 412 (36) 398 (38) Percent with LVEF measured 752 (67) 590 (56) LVEF <40% 328 (44) 282 (48) Discharge serum sodium <130 mmol/L 22 (2) 22 (2) Discharge serum creatinine >2.5 mg/dL 115 (10) 120 (11) Discharge medical therapy ACE inhibitors 629 (56) 632 (60) Digoxin 657 (59) 572 (55) Diuretic 988 (88) 873 (83) 6-Mo readmission rate 570 (50) 491 (47) 6-Mo HF readmission rate 287 (25) 219 (21) 6-Mo mortality rate 206 (18) 173 (18) 6-Mo readmission + death 644 (57) 557 (53) ACE, Angiotensin-converting enzyme; HF, heart failure; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MI, myocardial infarction; SNF, skilled nursing facility.
Characteristics No readmission
(n [%])Readmission
(n [%])P value* Total sample 559 (50) 570 (50) Demographics Age 65-74 183 (47) 209 (53) .03 75-84 233 (48) 249 (52) >=85 143 (56) 112 (44) Sex Male 219 (47) 248 (53) .14 Female 340 (51) 322 (49) Race White 510 (49) 527 (51) .45 Other 49 (53) 43 (47) Medical history Atrial fibrillation/flutter 149 (46) 175 (54) .13 MI 188 (47) 209 (53) .28 HF 311 (46) 371 (54) .001 PTCA 31 (49) 32 (51) .96 CABG 104 (48) 114 (52) .55 Stroke 94 (44) 119 (56) .08 Renal failure 84 (39) 131 (61) .001 COPD 133 (45) 160 (55) .10 Diabetes 180 (44) 232 (56) .003 Hypertension 338 (50) 336 (50) .60 Admission in 1 y 244 (44) 312 (56) .001 HF admission in 1 y 76 (42) 104 (58) .03 Admission clinical characteristics Paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea 141 (49) 144 (51) .99 Orthopnea 225 (48) 241 (52) .49 Chest pain 93 (50) 92 (50) .82 SBP >200 mm Hg 64 (56) 51 (44) .17 Pulse >100 beats/min 180 (51) 172 (49) .46 Respiratory rate >24 breaths/min 374 (49) 387 (51) .72 Pulmonary edema on chest radiograph 125 (48) 135 (52) .60 Hospital course LVEF <20% 26 (46) 31 (54) .29 Major complication 26 (59) 18 (41) .20 Major procedure 45 (54) 38 (46) .37 Length of stay >= 4 days 515 (49) 535 (51) .26 Discharge labs Sodium <130 mmol/L 13 (59) 9 (41) .36 Potassium >5 mmol/L 34 (51) 33 (49) .84 BUN >40 mg/dL 150 (42) 204 (58) .001 Creatinine >2.5 mg/dL 33 (29) 82 (71) .001 BUN/creatinine >20 311 (48) 335 (52) .35 Discharge mobility Independent 324 (49) 334 (51) .94 Assisted 235 (50) 236 (51) BUN, Blood urea nitrogen; CABG, coronary artery bypass surgery; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HF, heart failure; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MI, myocardial infarction; PTCA, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty; SBP, systolic blood pressure.
* P value for comparisons within samples of patients.
Variable Hazard ratio
(95% CI)*P value Creatinine >2.5 mg/dL at discharge 1.72 (1.35-2.18) .0001 Prior admission within 1 year 1.25 (1.05-1.48) .012 Prior heart failure 1.23 (1.02-1.48) .03 Diabetes 1.17 (0.99-1.39) .07 CI, Confidence interval.
* Hazard ratio based on Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for other factors in the model. Prior heart failure was at least 1 prior heart failure admission within 1 year or documented history of heart failure.
No. risk predictors Derivation sample Validation sample n % Event n % Event All-cause readmission 0 201 34 156 26 1-2 705 51 649 48 3-4 223 63 242 59 Heart failure readmission 0 201 12 156 9 1-2 705 25 649 20 3-4 223 39 242 31 All-cause readmission or death 0 201 38 156 31 1-2 705 58 649 54 3-4 223 70 242 65